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Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for December 04 – 08, 2017

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– As practice shows, if at least 25-30% of oscillators signal that a pair is oversold or overbought, one should expect a correction. This is what happened last week with the EUR/USD. At the beginning of the week, it seemed to have gone north, continuing the main trend of November, but the bulls’ strength quickly dried up, and soon the pair retreated to where one third of analysts and oscillators had indicated – to the local bottom in zone 1.1800. However, while the pair was falling, the bulls regained their forces and by the end of the week they managed to bring it back to the level of 1.1900 – practically to the same place where the pair started on Monday;

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تحليلات الاسبوع- Elliott waves for Forex correlation analysis – Deutsche Bank Bullish pin bar

DeutscheBk weekly review

Technical Observation:

During the previous, the price of this share opened at 18.84, went as low as 18.43 and a high as 19.08  but ended up closing at 18.96. The previous week’s candle is a perfect bullish pin bar candle and signal a possible increase in the number of buyer in this market. Having said that, We expect a possible bullish price rally towards 20.98 and could break even higher with the next target at 25.93. The anticipated bullish price rally is merely the continuation of the impulsive wave (i) to the upper side  and should break above 20.98. Should this be the case, then we will be continuing long with the next impulsive wave (iii) towards 25.93.  

Trade Recommendations:

Buy the shares of this bank now, with your first take profit at 20.98 and the next target at 25.93.

SPX500 weekly review

Technical Observation:

During the previous trading week on Friday, this index opened at 2645.6, went as high as 2652.1 and as low as 2606.4 but ended up closing at 2642.9, just a few pips above its opening price. Th Friday’s candle is a perfect bullish pin bar candle and indicates that buyers are still in control in this market. Thus, during this week and even in the coming week, we expect a possible bullish price rally towards 2705.00 and could break even higher but should not go beyond 3000.00. This index has a strange positive correlation to Bitcoin. These two have been in constant up trend and chances of continuing to the upper side are highly anticipated. Thus, remain long on both.

Trade Recommendations:

Remain long with your target at 3000.00.

 Bitcoin Weekly review:

Technical Observation:

For the past ten years now, we’ve seen Bitcoin rise in value from  mere 7 dollars to over 10,000.00 US Dollars per Bitcoin. For sometimes to come now, this cryptocurrency could continue to rise in value and may reach up to 20,000 per bitcoin in 2020. Technically, we expect the impulsive wave (5) to spike even higher during the coming week and even during the coming weeks. Any correction to the lower side before a buy position is considered will be the best place to buy this crypocurrency with your target at 20,000. As saw above, this crypto currency have a strong technical correlation to SPX 5oo and will move in the same direction during this week and even in the coming weeks.

Trade Recommendation:

Buy Bitcoin now with your target at 20,000.00

 

 

 

 

 

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موجز لأهم الأخبار و الأحداث العالمية في الأسبوع المنصرم

اتفق أعضاء “أوبك” والمنتجون المستقلون المشاركون في اتفاق خفض الإنتاج خلال اجتماعهم في فيينا هذا الأسبوع، على تمديد العمل بالاتفاق حتى نهاية العام القادم. فيما أظهرت القراءة الثانية للناتج المحلي الإجمالي الأمريكي عن الربع الثالث، نمو اقتصاد الولايات المتحدة بنسبة 3.3%، ارتفاعًا من التقديرات الأولية التي بلغت 3%. التاريخ الحدث ملاحظات الإثنين 27 نوفمبر مخزونات […]

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تحليلات الاسبوع- Technical Analysis Based on Breakout – Still Buying Bitcoin

Buy Bitcoin:

Technical Observation:

The most obvious thing to buy right now is this crypto currency. For the better parts of this year, Bitcoin has been in a constant up trend and chances of rising higher are highly anticipated. We expect a massive rise towards $40,000.00 by the end of next year or even higher. As it is on the daily chart, I can only recommend buying Bitcoin. If you’ve bought before, then remain long, if not you could wait for a pullback towards $10,000.00. Then buy this cryptocurrency with your sell lines being $15,000.00, $20,000.00 and ultimately $40,000.00. Selling this coin now is not a safe idea whatsoever, only buy positions seems more ideal than the other.

Trade Signal:

Buy Bitcoin toward $10,000.00.

Barclay Banky To plummet 

Wave Analysis:

Barclays back share’s price are still rallying within the the falling channel. Last week, the price gaped to the upper side  but got capped by the upper trend line acting as a resistance to the falling channel. Following the rejection from this trend line, I expect a bearish momentum towards the lower trend line but should not go beyond 8.23, where I’ll be looking for  a clear buy position. At the moment, I’m only interested in a sell position with this share. Only if the price breaks above this trend line, will I consider a buy position. On the way downwards, the key lines to look for include 9.92, 9.33 and lastly 8.84. If these lines are broken, then further decline towards 8.23 is expected. My advice, sell this share now, or wait for a pullback to the upper side then sell.

Trade Signal:

Remain short towards 8.23.

 

 MegaFon Review

Trade Observation:

For the past two months, Russians Number two Mobile operator’s shares  has been on the decline but is currently around a key daily support zone 540.2-531.7. The previous week’s candle is a reversal candle and could mean the price per value of this share could grow this week, but should not go beyond the upper trendline.  During this week, only  a buy position looks more ideal, with a stop loss below the previous week’s lowest low 522.8, and take profit along the upper trendline. As it is on the weekly chart above, only a buy position can be adviced, however, if the price breaks below 531.7, then I expect further decline towards 450.00.

Trade Signal.

Expect a bounce from 540.2-531.7 to buy this share with your take profit along the upper trendline.

 

 

 

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الأسهم الأمريكية تقلص خسائرها لكنها تغلق على انخفاض..و”داو جونز” يحقق أكبر مكاسب أسبوعية هذا العام

هبطت مؤشرات الأسهم الأمريكية خلال تداولات الجمعة متأثرة بالقلق بشأن اتهام مستشار الأمن القومي السابق لـ”ترامب” بالكذب حول التدخل الروسي في الانتخابات الرئاسية، وقلصت المؤشرات الرئيسية خسائرها، لكن معظمها حقق مكاسب أسبوعية. وانخفض “داو جونز” 40 نقطة إلى 24231 نقطة بعد خسائر بأكثر من 230 نقطة خلال الجلسة، كما هبط “ناسداك” إلى 6847 نقطة، في […]

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(01 DECEMBER 2017)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Bitcoin stabilizes below 10k

Now that the Bitcoin has reached 10k dollar. Speculation regarding its futures are reaching a climax. Some sees it at 1 million dollar like John Mcafee who in a tweet declared that he was increasing its forecast on the digital currency. Some other like Jamie Dimon said “Bitcoin was a fraud”, forgetting that JP Morgan was involved in the Libor scandal.

Others are also very suspicious like the 2014 Nobel Prize, Jean Tirole, who is concerned about the possible financial bubble that Bitcoin represents. Unfortunately we did not hear him yet about the massive debt from G10 countries. He then added that he is afraid that money is being privatised. We should recall that the Fed is a private bank that control the issuance of any dollar. Is there any reason to be afraid of the Fed in this case?

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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events

Friday, December 1st

The EUR/USD pair extends its upside trend for the third session in a row, keeping its positions above the level of 1.19 at the last working day of the week. Yesterday the greenback came under fresh selling pressure after the Senate delayed a vote on the highly anticipated US tax cut legislation, which, in turn, had a positive effect on the major currency pair. Moreover, seems that the retreat of the euro in the cross with the pound, caused by optimism surrounding Brexit, eased somewhat that also remains positive factor for the shared currency. Looking ahead, today the US will publish ISM manufacturing PMI report, which will likely hog the limelight during the NA session, while any price actions of the US dollar will remain as the key determinant for the pair during this trading session.

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(01 DECEMBER 2017)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 1:USD’s turmoil benefits EUR

After a promising start into the week, the greenback is back in the doldrums as investors scale down their long USD positions. After rising as much as 0.75% during the week, the dollar index reversed gains and returned at around 92.80 on Friday morning. A couple of month ago, everything was looking good for the greenback as Trump’s tax reform finally started to move forward, the Fed started to reduce its giant balance sheet and signalled a rate hike in December, while economic indicators came in roughly in line with market expectations.

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Brazil Growth Improves In Q3

Brazil’s economic growth gained momentum in the third quarter, continuing the growing trend witnessed since the economy exited one of its worst recessions in decades.

Gross domestic product grew 1.4 percent year-on-year, preliminary data from the statistical office IBGE showed Friday. The figure was in line with economists’ expectations.

Second quarter growth was revised to 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent. The economy stagnated in the first three months of the year.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP edged up 0.1 percent in the third quarter, which was slower than the 0.3 percent expansion economists had predicted.

The second quarter figure was raised to 0.7 percent from 0.3 percent. The economy grew 1.3 percent in the first quarter.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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أهم خمسة أحداث مالية لهذا اليوم 1 كانون الأول/ديسمبر

استقر الدولار الأمريكى أمام سلة من العملات الرئيسية خلال تعاملات اليوم الجمعه تأثرًا بمخاوف وتوتر الأسواق حيال قانون الاصلاحات الضريبية خاصة بعد أن تم تأجيل التصويت على القانون، يأتى هذا بعد ارتفاعه بالأمس بدعم من ارتفاع عوائد السندات الحكومية فئة العشر سنوات بأكثر من 6 نقطة.

ارتفع اليورو خلال تداولات اليوم بدعم من ايجابية البيانات الأوروبية والتى تمثلت فى تراجع معدل البطالة وارتفاع التوقعات لمعدلات التضخم السنوية، الأمر الذى يشير إلى صحة الاقتصاد الأوروبى خلال الربع الرابع، الجدير بالذكر أن اليورو لم يتأثر بمحادثات خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبى وهذا يشير إلى مدى ثقة المستثمرين بوضع الاتحاد الأوروبى وأن العبء الأكبر من الأزمة يقع على عاتق بريطانيا.

شهد الين اليابانى تحركات ضعيفة ليتداول بالقرب من أدنى مستوياته فى أسبوع وذلك فى ظل تحسن أداء الأسهم الآسيوية وقدرتها على الارتفاع لتتبع مثيلاتها الأمريكية بالرغم من تأجيل التصويت على قانون تخفيض الضرائب الأمريكية الأمر الذى  يزيد من الضغط السلبى على الين اليابانى.

تداولت أسعار الذهب فى نطاق محدود بعد تراجعه على مدار اليومين الماضيين متأثرًا من بيانات التضخم الأمريكية التى صدرت أمس والتى شهدت تعافى مما زاد من التوقعات بأن البنك الاحتياطى الفيدرالى سيستمر فى سياسته للرفع التدريجى لأسعار الفائدة مما أثر ذلك سلبًا على أسعار الذهب، كما يزيد من الضط السلبى ارتفاع عائد السندات الأمريكية فئة العشر سنوات، ومن المتوقع أن يتزايد الطلب على الذهب اليوم كملاذ آمن واستثمار بديل بعد أن تم تأجيل التصويت على قانون تخفيض الضرائب الأمريكية، الأمر الذى تسبب فى عودة التوتر للأسواق.

ارتفعت أسعار النفط فى إطار محدود وذلك بهد انتهاء منظمة أوبك اجتماعها الرسمى بالأمس والذى أسفر عن موافقة منتجى النفط داخل أوبك وخارجها وفى مقدمتهم روسيا على تمديد اتفاق تخفيض مستويات الانتاج تسعة أشهر إضافية لينتهى فى كانون الأول/ديسمبر 2018 بدلًا من آذار/مارس 2018، وقد أشار وزير الطاقة السعودى “خالد الفالح” أنه سيتم مراجعة الأسواق فى اجتماع حزيران/يونيو 2018، ومن المنتظر أن تصدر شركة بيكر هيوز للخدمات النفطية اليوم تقريرها الأسبوعى عن عدد منصات الحفر الأمريكية الأمر الذى قد يساهم فى تغير الأسعار.

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