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GBPUSD: Threatening Further Upside On Corrective Recovery

GBPUSD: The pair looks to follow through higher on the back of its Friday price recovery. Support lies at the 1.3150 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.3100 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.3050 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.3000 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.3250 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.3300 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3350 level followed by the 1.3400 level. On the whole, GBPUSD continues to face further upside pressure on correction

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Sell USD/RUB, Target 55.50, Says Morgan Stanley

Sell USD/RUB, says Morgan Stanley, as it expects the Central Bank of Russia to deliver fewer rate cuts than the market expects in 2018, even though it forecasts a 25 bps cut this Friday. The bank recommends selling USD/RUB at the market price, for a target of 55.50, and a stop at 58.75. USD/RUB is last at 57.4590. “Despite the CBR being in the midst of an easing cycle, commentary from [Head of Central Bank Elvira] Nabiullina has remained cautious, and so easing will likely be gradual,” says Morgan Stanley. “This should keep real rates and RUB supported.”(olga.cotaga@wsj.com; @OlgaCotaga) 

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(23 OCTOBER 2017)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 2:Abe win give USD/JPY a boost

In Japan Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe ruling LDP-Komeito coalition was handed a resounding victory in the Lower House elections. Upstart opposition Party of Hope failed to converted general popularity into votes but did end up splitting the opposition vote making its easer for Abe to obtain a 2/3 majority. Despite the fact that Abenomics does have much room to debase the JPY, USDJPY rallied to 114.10 result on the removal of political uncertainty. Looking forward Prime Minister Abe will run again for the LDP leadership next year while the BoJ will be dominated by dovish members as BoJ governor and deputy governor’s selection next April will be under Abe strong control. Moving forward the fate of USDJPY depends less on BoJ policy and more the outlook for the Fed.

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(23 OCTOBER 2017)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 1:EUR tumbles ahead of ECB decision

The single currency started the week on the back foot as the ECB decision looms. The euro was down roughly 0.30% against the US dollar but lost even more ground against high quality commodity currencies such as the Aussie and the Kiwi, which gained 0.30% and 0.45% respectively. For the past two weeks the single currency has been trading in a volatile range as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s penultimate meeting of the year. Although there is absolutely no doubt that the ECB will trim its monthly bond purchase, which currently stands at €60bn/month, the date of the announcement is still quite uncertain.

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